DIRECT 2.0 has sure been quiet lately

[J.McDonald]

OK, I'll bite. Say Ares-I really is too far down the road to stop. Heck, they've almost finished the scale model already! I'll pretend that the zero-confidence FOC in 2015 isn't an issue here. I'll also pretend that the billions of dollars they've yet to spend on the project aren't a massive waste when an EELV could be man-rated for a fraction of that.

As has been said above, Ares-V is still a long way away. The vehicle has changed hugely from ESAS. Baseline is now 6xRS68 and 5.5seg SRBs, but I hear that they may need to switch to regen engines next. So the configuration is fluid, to say the least.
Would a 'Jupiter' be too late to this party? It would require a switch to a two launch mission, of course, but the increased flight rate and smaller vehicle size bring benefits of their own which anybody familiar with DIRECT will be aware of.

[Rick]

I think Jupiter is too late for the Ares I party, but not the Ares V party.

[winkhome]

What some of you fail to realize is that the party is past over for Ares I and V. An alternative of one shape or another will be taking its place soon. Sorry.

[JimMcDade]

I just hope that Obama will not cancel the large booster plans entirely. NASA could wind up with nothing but a crew delivery system if the administration decides to pursue that $18 billion pre-school program.

Jupiter is outside of the picture entirely, but a big Delta has the best chance if Obama decides to kill Ares I. The Russian engines on Atlas are politically unacceptable to certain powerful Senators from both sides of the aisle.

[winkhome]

Mr. McDade -

Forgive me if I am asking you to repeat yourself - but why is it that you consider Jupiter "out of the picture"? Right now more of Jupiter exists than either of the Ares put together. I look forward to you response. Thank you.

[Rick]

Winkhome, thanks for joining the conversation!

In actuality, Ares exists in the VAB in the form of Ares I-X. Jupiter exists in a PDF file.

What is your justification for expressing the above statement?

Also, thanks for joining us.

[winkhome]

What exists in the VAB is the Ares I-X, not Ares. Ever seen the movie "Tucker" about the Tucker automobile - well, the Tucker proto-type automobile had more in common with the eventual production car than perhaps the I-X to the I. It may look like the I but the first stage is not first stage of the Ares I, the second stage is a fake - and the J-2X is still in development how many years away is still a guess if anyone is honest about it. As for the rest of the parts that make up the I-X, most of them, while resembling what might have made it to Ares I, are no more real than the second stage.

Ares V - none of exists now at all.

Jupiter - existing Solid Boosters, existing Shuttle Engines, most of the existing ET, and 2/3's of those have flown in a manner to which they will be used on the Jupiter. Is there a ways to go, yes, but the road is better defined at this point with Jupiter. The Ares I & V are nothing like what was originally sold to the American people, and if they continue to remove capability from Orion, due to Ares I's shortcomings, we will not have a mercury-like capsule to put a chimp in much less, 6 men - oh wait, 4 men, or was it 3 or...

Respectfully

[winkhome]

One last thought - is it not amazing that a power point presentation can create more excitment and support than some life-sized hardware being currently assembled. You may dismiss the DIRECT crowd, but we make up the grassroots and the rock-solid supports of the space program. We want to see it succeed. What sense does any of it really make - if Ares could deliver, there would be no DIRECT, but that is not the case - so DIRECT is, and the way it is going, probably will be. Trust me, I would be happy to be wrong on this, I am sure we (the Direct people) would be - to know that the next great adventure is about to take place - but the evidence suggests FAILURE, and sorry, that is not an option.

[Rick]

What exists in the VAB is the Ares I-X, not Ares. Ever seen the movie "Tucker" about the Tucker automobile - well, the Tucker proto-type automobile had more in common with the eventual production car than perhaps the I-X to the I. It may look like the I but the first stage is not first stage of the Ares I, the second stage is a fake - and the J-2X is still in development how many years away is still a guess if anyone is honest about it. As for the rest of the parts that make up the I-X, most of them, while resembling what might have made it to Ares I, are no more real than the second stage.

Ares V - none of exists now at all.

Jupiter - existing Solid Boosters, existing Shuttle Engines, most of the existing ET, and 2/3's of those have flown in a manner to which they will be used on the Jupiter. Is there a ways to go, yes, but the road is better defined at this point with Jupiter. The Ares I & V are nothing like what was originally sold to the American people, and if they continue to remove capability from Orion, due to Ares I's shortcomings, we will not have a mercury-like capsule to put a chimp in much less, 6 men - oh wait, 4 men, or was it 3 or...

Respectfully

winkhome, you did not specify what if any Ares vehicle you were referring to initially. Ares I-X is part of the Ares program, is it not?

Pad modifications, infrastructure changes etc are going forward for Ares, not Direct 3.0 or any other launch vehicle for that matter. The road for Direct does not exist in the real world at this time. I'll repeat, at this time.

I congratulate those who have such a passion for proposing an alternative launch vehicle, but at this point my friend, and unless the current US President decides to scrap the work that has been ongoing for nearly 5 years now, Ares I will fly.

The odds of the current Constellation path being scrapped, are very, very small.

[Rick]

One last thought - is it not amazing that a power point presentation can create more excitment and support than some life-sized hardware being currently assembled. You may dismiss the DIRECT crowd, but we make up the grassroots and the rock-solid supports of the space program. We want to see it succeed. What sense does any of it really make - if Ares could deliver, there would be no DIRECT, but that is not the case - so DIRECT is, and the way it is going, probably will be. Trust me, I would be happy to be wrong on this, I am sure we (the Direct people) would be - to know that the next great adventure is about to take place - but the evidence suggests FAILURE, and sorry, that is not an option.

Here I disagree with you. It's creating excitement for those who are hard and fast Direct supporters. That's about it. Those who are involved in the space business as I am never hear of Direct, either in a formal conversation nor a casual one for that matter. You may not believe me, but I am used to being criticized for trying to tell the truth regarding Direct, by those who are enamored with it.

For the record, and its been documented all over the place on this website, I don't hate nor dismiss Direct. I think it is a good rocket. Having said that, and since I am a realist, the fact of the matter is that Direct made its presence known too late in the game to replace Ares I. Ares V is another matter, and I think it might have a shot down the road.

I also do not dismiss the Direct followers, as I said, I congratulate them for trying, but am also wary that the sometimes unrelenting NASA bashing that occurs in the Direct community will do more harm than good for the future of human spaceflight.

That's my 4 cents anyway. Take it or leave it for what you think its worth.

[Rick]

An FYI, I've changed the forum title Direct 2.0 to Direct 3.0, to reflect the current state of Direct.

[klydemorris]

Winkhome- there is a vast differance between what creates "excitement" on the internet vs what creates excitement in Congress. Likewise there is a vast differance between what IS funded and what has never been funded. The best hope that I can see for Direct is that someplace along the way over the current commission's ponderings, the Direct folks can get a foot hold of intrest and perhaps convince the people who actually have the power to make decisions to somehow morph Direct into the Ares line- much in the same way that the Saturn I was morphed into the IB. That way, the current work on Ares I that has been funded cannot be seen as thrown away and a bridge over the Obama administration can be made. A very smooth transition logic has to be shown if Direct has any chance at all. If, however, the Direct people go in with the mode of "Cancel Ares I right now and insert Direct in its place" they are going to lose big time.

Additionally, some of the radical Direct fans should know heckeling from the internet toward the commission in favor of their beloved system will quickly backfire. The commission will see this as just a bunch of cyber crackpots and their words will soon not even be read. The same goes for the Ares I haters... most of which are beyond reasoned thought at this point anyhow.

One last thought here- some on the Internet who spew the venom toward Ares and Ares I should use care in what they wish for. The Obama administration is hair-triggered to the cancel position. We could end up with nothing more than a grand adventure to earth to fiddle around with pop-culture junk science. And the administration that follows Obama will be hair-triggered to QUICKLY appear to shrink government and slash programs. Times are very bad as it is and the future does not look bright for human spaceflight. Only a few currently in Congress are holding it together and I can easily see many of those Congress members being tossed out by the voters in 2010. We need funding solidly in place for a solid program before that all comes to pass.

[winkhome]

Winkhome- there is a vast differance between what creates "excitement" on the internet vs what creates excitement in Congress. Likewise there is a vast differance between what IS funded and what has never been funded. The best hope that I can see for Direct is that someplace along the way over the current commission's ponderings, the Direct folks can get a foot hold of intrest and perhaps convince the people who actually have the power to make decisions to somehow morph Direct into the Ares line- much in the same way that the Saturn I was morphed into the IB. That way, the current work on Ares I that has been funded cannot be seen as thrown away and a bridge over the Obama administration can be made. A very smooth transition logic has to be shown if Direct has any chance at all. If, however, the Direct people go in with the mode of "Cancel Ares I right now and insert Direct in its place" they are going to lose big time.

Additionally, some of the radical Direct fans should know heckeling from the internet toward the commission in favor of their beloved system will quickly backfire. The commission will see this as just a bunch of cyber crackpots and their words will soon not even be read. The same goes for the Ares I haters... most of which are beyond reasoned thought at this point anyhow.

One last thought here- some on the Internet who spew the venom toward Ares and Ares I should use care in what they wish for. The Obama administration is hair-triggered to the cancel position. We could end up with nothing more than a grand adventure to earth to fiddle around with pop-culture junk science. And the administration that follows Obama will be hair-triggered to QUICKLY appear to shrink government and slash programs. Times are very bad as it is and the future does not look bright for human spaceflight. Only a few currently in Congress are holding it together and I can easily see many of those Congress members being tossed out by the voters in 2010. We need funding solidly in place for a solid program before that all comes to pass.

Good Afternoon -

First of all it is Dale...

Sorry for the late reply but I had a day long Red Cross training event.

I believe that a big part of this is jobs, and Congress does get excited about jobs, and even though we do not want to think of our Space Program as a "make work" or a jobs program, in many ways it is that and so much more. As for excitment beyond the Internet and the halls of Congress - I think many if not most people are caught up in their ability to survive in the current economics of the day they could really care less what NASA built, or what they flew, or who or how many people they employed - if it does not do something for me directly - no pun intended, they probably do not care.

I know what I would like the commission to do, and then the Administration. Will they, none of us really know. However, I have been in business for 35 years, and I have had to put some rather expensive dogs down over time, even with significant sunk investments made. I do not know how much, if any time you have spent looking at the DIRECT materials, but much of what you say they want to do, is not what they want to do, or are suggesting be done. They believe that there is much good to be gained from what the Ares program has done thus far. The problem is that the Ares end game in flawed and it has gone far off of its original track. The handwriting is on the wall, Ares I and V will never fly, as they were originally proposed, or as what they are now.

Please note - I am not an Ares hater, as I have stated many times before I wanted the system to succeed, to work, to open the heavens! - if were up to me we would be spending 25% of the budget on space.

DIRECT exists, even if just now, largely on powerpoint, and alternative suggestions exist, not simply for their own merits, but because of the failures, and or impending failures of the Ares I & V.

Perhaps the biggest failing of Ares and its supporters is failing to see those failings...

And so it goes...

[klydemorris]

(snip)The handwriting is on the wall, Ares I and V will never fly, as they were originally proposed, or as what they are now.(snip)

So... ummm... where is this wall? And who did the handwriting?

"Never" is a very strong term to use... does that include the Ares I-X?

Please back up your statement with some solid referances, data, sources.

BTW- Yes, I am fully informed on the Direct concept- Ross and I have communicated on the subject.

[Rick]

Dale,
Being that jobs are a sticking point with Direct supportors, so what? As I am a NASA subcontractor who supports Ares, why dismiss my opinion? Is your job on the line if there is a change in vehicle selection?

Also, thank you for your work with the Red Cross! I commend you.

[winkhome]

(snip)The handwriting is on the wall, Ares I and V will never fly, as they were originally proposed, or as what they are now.(snip)

So... ummm... where is this wall? And who did the handwriting?

"Never" is a very strong term to use... does that include the Ares I-X?

Please back up your statement with some solid referances, data, sources.

BTW- Yes, I am fully informed on the Direct concept- Ross and I have communicated on the subject.

Well - read Malcolm Gladwell's book "BLINK", might be the best way for you to understand where the wall is.

Ares I-X - depends on what the AC comes back with. While part of the Ares program, as stated previously, I personally do not consider Ares I-X to be Ares - and I am assuming you will spare me having to explain that in detail - thank you

I will assume in all fairness that your communication with Ross has been of some real substance, and so there is probably nothing I could add to the conversation or to your knowledge since Ross is on the frontlines.

Let me ask you this - if DIRECT and Jupiter are nothing more than a powerpoint pipe dream - why waste your time? Will not the reality of Ares simply sweep it aside? If the threat is not valid, why bother??

[winkhome]

Dale,
Being that jobs are a sticking point with Direct supportors, so what? As I am a NASA subcontractor who supports Ares, why dismiss my opinion? Is your job on the line if there is a change in vehicle selection?

Also, thank you for your work with the Red Cross! I commend you.

Jobs are but one of many sticking points, and it is not simply the job count when it comes to the jobs, it is the knowledge and skills base. Being out in Idaho right now, again, space above is much closer to many here than thoughts of KSC and the US Space program. However, for myself, I have always had an interest, but without the Internet, I have no community to involve myself with - hopefully that makes some sense. That said, I am somewhat certain that if you asked those who support DIRECT - why? you might very well get as many answers as there are supporters. Some, might not really even want DIRECT - they would prefer a SSTO X-33 or DC-X or... - but the reality of limited options, and the fact that people filling the streets if HSF was cancelled would probably not happen makes people (sometimes) realize you do not always get what you want.

Now - not knowing you from Adam - I do not know where you fit in the whole works - but do not think for a minute that I dismiss your opinions. You obviously have a unique perspective and there is value in that. Not knowing where you are within Ares, makes it hard for me to know if there would be a place for you within Jupiter. So, based on a complete lack of information, I really do not have an answer for you. If it were up to me, there would be more than enough work to keep everybody busy. Not only that, but there would be a demand for people coming out of college, and the program would be so expansive and exciting, that a greater number of students would want to be engineers and scientists rather than lawyers and futures traders - I would hope you get the picture.

I think and believe that you and I, and many others, all want the same thing, but in a world of scarcity, there are only a few limited ways of getting there - and sometimes only one way. The question then becomes what horse do we hitch our wagon to in order to make the journey? In the days when that really was the case, making the right choice was a matter of life and death. In this case with Ares, Direct, and ... it is or probably will be a matter of life and death of HSF, at least for our generation, at least in this country. So shall the US become the Spain or Portugal of the next great frontier - only time will tell, but I do believe that we are at that tipping point. Sorry for being so long winded...

[J.McDonald]

Good to see the site working again Rick.

Now, a question: to what extent do people believe DIRECT influenced the decision to hold the Augustine review?

I presume there is a dedicated thread for the review? I'll go hunt for it now...

[JimMcDade]

There were some stories earlier this year that indicated that Obama wanted NASA to use "military missiles". I don't think Direct was a factor in the Augustine panel decision, by any stretch.

A year ago last March, Obama told a campaign rally that,"“NASA is no longer associated with inspiration". He also accused NASA of "drifting". he got a lot of negative feedback about those comments, so I think he is in need if a "NASA education". By design,the Augustine panel will provide that education for the POTUS.

Or perhaps he plans to revive section nine of his original platform document:

"IX. A COMMITMENT TO FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY

Barack Obama’s early education and K-12 plan package costs about $18 billion per year. He will maintain fiscal responsibility and prevent any increase in the deficit by offsetting cuts and revenue sources in other parts of the government. The early education plan will be paid for by delaying the NASA Constellation Program for five years, using purchase cards and the negotiating power of the government to reduce costs of standardized procurement, auctioning surplus federal property, and reducing the erroneous payments identified by the Government Accountability Office, and closing the CEO pay deductibility loophole. The rest of the plan will be funded using a small portion of the savings associated with fighting the war in Iraq."

My stomach is turning after reading that again.

Another campaign document Obama signed -off on last year actually endorsed Ares I and:

BARACK OBAMA’S PLAN FOR AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN SPACE

Develop the Next-Generation of Space Vehicles: The retirement of the Space Shuttle in 2010 will leave the United States without manned spaceflight capability until the introduction of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) carried by the Ares I Launch Vehicle. As president, Obama will support the development of this vital new platform to ensure that the United States’ reliance on foreign space capabilities is limited to the minimum possible time period. The CEV will be the backbone of future missions, and is being designed with technology that is already proven and available.

Obama did not mention Ares V or a lunar lander. Hmm.

Last December the Wall Street Journal reported, "Obama's team is considering using modified US military rockets to launch the eventual replacement for the space shuttle"

In January Bloomberg reporterd, "Obama’s transition team is considering a collaboration between the Defense Department and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration because military rockets may be cheaper and ready sooner than the space agency’s planned launch vehicle, which isn’t slated to fly until 2015, according to people who’ve discussed the idea with the Obama team... Obama has said the Pentagon’s space program -- which spent about $22 billion in fiscal year 2008, almost a third more than NASA’s budget -- could be tapped to speed the civilian agency toward its goals as the recession pressures federal spending...The Obama team has asked NASA officials about the costs and savings of scrapping the agency’s new Ares I rocket, which is being developed by Chicago-based Boeing Co. and Minneapolis- based Alliant Techsystems Inc...At the Pentagon, there may be support for combining launch vehicles. While NASA hasn’t recently approached the Pentagon about using its Delta IVAtlas V rockets, building them for manned missions could allow for cost sharing, said Steven Huybrechts, the director of space programs and policy in the office of Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who is staying on into the new administration." and

The poor Direct boys are never mentioned in the more credible reports that come from places other than Bob Block at the Orlando Sentinel and a couple of pulp magazines like Popular Mechanics. There is not even a hint of Direct coming out of the White House or the Pentagon.

In spite of the mixed, garbled message coming from the Obama camp, Ares I still has the inside track.

[Rick]

Jobs are but one of many sticking points, and it is not simply the job count when it comes to the jobs, it is the knowledge and skills base. Being out in Idaho right now, again, space above is much closer to many here than thoughts of KSC and the US Space program. However, for myself, I have always had an interest, but without the Internet, I have no community to involve myself with - hopefully that makes some sense. That said, I am somewhat certain that if you asked those who support DIRECT - why? you might very well get as many answers as there are supporters. Some, might not really even want DIRECT - they would prefer a SSTO X-33 or DC-X or... - but the reality of limited options, and the fact that people filling the streets if HSF was cancelled would probably not happen makes people (sometimes) realize you do not always get what you want.

Now - not knowing you from Adam - I do not know where you fit in the whole works - but do not think for a minute that I dismiss your opinions. You obviously have a unique perspective and there is value in that. Not knowing where you are within Ares, makes it hard for me to know if there would be a place for you within Jupiter. So, based on a complete lack of information, I really do not have an answer for you. If it were up to me, there would be more than enough work to keep everybody busy. Not only that, but there would be a demand for people coming out of college, and the program would be so expansive and exciting, that a greater number of students would want to be engineers and scientists rather than lawyers and futures traders - I would hope you get the picture.

I think and believe that you and I, and many others, all want the same thing, but in a world of scarcity, there are only a few limited ways of getting there - and sometimes only one way. The question then becomes what horse do we hitch our wagon to in order to make the journey? In the days when that really was the case, making the right choice was a matter of life and death. In this case with Ares, Direct, and ... it is or probably will be a matter of life and death of HSF, at least for our generation, at least in this country. So shall the US become the Spain or Portugal of the next great frontier - only time will tell, but I do believe that we are at that tipping point. Sorry for being so long winded...

Dale, thank you for your very well thought out response. I believe that we all want the same thing too. Jobs it appears to those who's job is not affected would obviously be of a lesser priority in the big picture. I work in IT and support, ISS, Shuttle and Ares. I have alot on my plate as you can imagine, and am very in tune with my future and what would affect it and how the current US administration stance regarding human spaceflight could alter it, for good or bad.

The things that I have been trying to get across the last several months is that although I believe Jupiter is a well thought out rocket, and Direct is a well thought out plan, I just believe that the reality of the situation is that its not seriously being considered. That's pretty much all I can say about it, as the rest is proprietary info which I would not divulge. Sorry about that.

I personally don't care how we get to point A, B OR C but have been attempting to be a realist about the whole situation.

Thanks for listening!